wholly shut out from a market, for an indefinite length of time. It is to be observed that this admission of foreign wheat did not occur till a great part of the harvest had been secured; it was not therefore wanted, unless in as far as the yield of the last crop may be found to be insufficient to meet the demands upon it till next harvest. The reason for particular notice of this circumstance is, that this, with a trifling exception, is the only entry of foreign wheat since 1831*, and that this extraneous supply was not required to make up for any deficiency of stocks of our own growth till the harvest of 1837 had become available.

The fact, therefore, is in full evidence, that during six successive years the produce of the United Kingdom has sufficed for the consumption, greatly increased as that has been; whereas in the four immediately preceding years a quantity little short of six millions of quarters had been required to make up for the deficiency of our own produce, to meet a consumption necessarily somewhat reduced by the high price, as it has since been increased by the low price; thus proving incontestably the large scale of difference of productiveness, in different series of years, and the insignificance compared with it of any possible difference in the consumption in the equal series.t

*The only exception being that of a small quantity, viz. 165,872 quarters, entered after the harvest of 1832, under circumstances similar to those here noticed.

It may here be remarked, with reference to the influence of the seasons on the productiveness of the crops of corn, that the experience of the results of the harvests from 1832 to 1837, both inclusive, falsifies the very commonly prevailing notion of the peculiarly fertilising effects of snow, inasmuch as the five winters preceding that of 1836-7 were distinguished by an extraordinary absence of snow, and yet they were followed by five very abundant wheat crops. And if the spring crops were not in some of those years equally abundant, it was not for want of snow during the previous winter, but for want of rain in the

summer.

SECTION 4. State of Markets for Produce other than those of Agricultural Produce, in the Years 1836 and 1837.

We have had occasion to remark that, till nearly the close of 1835, there was rather a slow and steady improvement of markets, and of trade generally, than any extraordinary activity or much of the spirit of speculation in goods.

In the early part of 1836, it having appeared, by the usual returns at the close of the year, that the stocks of some articles had been reduced below the ordinary rate of consumption, a tendency to a speculative demand for them became perceptible, but not in any very marked degree. The articles that came more immediately under this description were cotton, indigo, sugars, and silks; and an advance, greater or less, took place in each of these at different times till the summer of 1836. But, although in each of these articles there was a brisk demand, and consequent rise of markets, it was remarked at the time, that as the demand was chiefly by the trade, and for immediate manufacture or export, and that as the advance did not appear to be greater than according to fair reasoning on mercantile grounds was perfectly legitimate, it could not with propriety be characterised as speculation or overtrading. And it must be admitted, that there was nothing of the extravagance of purchases, by persons out of the trade, which had marked some former memorable periods of speculations in goods.

*

The following are notices in some of the printed circulars of the state of markets in the early part of 1836.

"Cotton. The stocks in the ports at the close of 1835 being barely equal to three months' consumption, and prices moderate, the markets opened at the commencement of the year with a good demand, and a great deal of fluctuation was experienced, which continued until April, when prices attained their highest, at which period, bowed Georgia had advanced 14d. to

So low were the stocks of these articles, and so confident the persuasion that they were not more

2d. per lb.; Surat and other East India sorts, d. to 1d. per lb.; and Brazil and Egyptian in a still greater proportion."

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Indigo. The very reduced stock at the end of 1835, the comparatively low price of the article, the large deliveries, and the shortness of the crop in India, attracted, early in the year, the attention of the trade. Prices advanced in the January sale, and kept progressively rising in the two following sales, especially in July, when considerable purchases were made on speculation for foreign account: the advance was then 1s. 6d. to 1s. 9d. on the prices at the end of 1835."

"Sugar, in the opening of the year, continued to maintain the favourable opinion it had acquired in 1835, and several circumstances combined to produce further improvement in its value. The stocks, both here and on the Continent, were very much reduced, and an idea still prevailed that the production of our West India colonies would go on decreasing under the new system of working. There had likewise been a positive failure of the crop in Louisiana, which caused the Americans to speculate at home, as also to be large purchasers at the place of growth; even from Europe shipments were made to the United States for their account. These operations, and a good demand for consumption on the Continent, caused much activity at advancing prices up to June, 1836."

Silks were among the articles of which the consumption, down to the close of 1835, had in the greatest degree outrun the supplies; and of some descriptions there was an almost total exhaustion of stock. The markets, therefore, in the early part of 1836, were in a very animated state, and prices appear to have reached their greatest elevation at the close of March of that year. As the prices then attained were scarcity prices, it was natural that the approach of fresh arrivals should occasion a decline of prices; but, with intervals of slight depression, the markets continued for some time to be very buoyant, notwithstanding an increasing pressure for money, and a rising rate of discount. The following are extracts from an eminent broker's circulars respecting this article:

"23d June, 1836. The East India Company's sale is just concluded. Bengal silk, both there and at the public sales before the Company's, sold steadily at an advance of 5 to 7 per cent. upon the sales of February, which is equal to the highest prices that were obtained during the excitement in March." "30th July, 1836. Our letter of 23d inst. reported the result of the East India Company's and public sales. The market for China silk, relieved by the large quantity taken off by speculators and consumers, soon began to rally, and an advance of from 7 to

than sufficient to meet the consumption at advanced prices, before the arrival of fresh supplies, that, although public attention had been roused early in the spring, to what appeared to be an undue elevation, and consequently precarious state of markets, there seemed to be no corresponding distrust among the parties immediately interested. And it was not till the arrival, or the certain approach, of fresh

to 10 per cent. was the result, considerable parcels being sold as the prices were improving." "31st August, 1836. Our market continued during the early part of the month in an inactive state with prices firm: the consumption was, however, proceeding to a considerable extent, although the trade were not disposed to purchase in anticipation. For the last fortnight business has been more current. In Bengal silks, nearly the whole of the arrivals have found buyers, with several parcels of Company's silks of former sales that were held by speculators. In Turkey silk comparatively little has been done. Prices remain about the same. The importations of Italian silk are limited, and the prices high; but the stock was so completely exhausted that the arrivals have been taken off at about 5 per cent. above previous rates."

It was not till the 30th September, 1836, that the writers of the circulars respecting this article discovered that a depression of the prices, which however to this time had been only such as might fairly be attributed to the growing increase of supplies, was to be ascribed to the pressure on the money markets. And it was not till nearly the close of 1836, when the failure of a firm that were considerable holders of silk, and the growing embarrassments of a house which had operated largely in the article, and which stopped payment in January, 1837, that the article underwent such a serious decline as could fairly be considered to have been caused by the state of discredit, or by pressure on the money market.

It has been requisite to give these details, in order to show that there had existed fair mercantile grounds for the rise in the markets, and the comparatively high range of prices of the above-mentioned articles, till an advanced period of 1836. And in the case of each of those articles it admits of being shown that in and after the summer of that year there was such an increase of the supplies as must necessarily have reduced prices, even if no particular pressure had existed in the money market, although of course that pressure aggravated the effects of the increased supplies, more especially in as far as they were imported or held upon credit.

supplies, either larger than had been estimated, or in a greater proportion than the consumption or export was found to take off, that the markets gave way. Even when the fresh arrivals were taking place, the decline was not rapid; nor in any instance, till nearly the close of 1836, does the fall of prices appear to have been under the influence of any particular pressure beyond that which the mere difference of supply would warrant. But whenever

a fall of prices since 1819 has taken place, if there happens to have been coincidently any actual or supposed reduction of the amount of the circulation, such is the prevalence of the currency theory, that the proceedings of the Bank are usually referred to as the moving cause of the alteration of prices. Thus, the money crisis, as it is called, of the latter part of 1836 is, in most of the circulars of that period, assumed to have been the cause of the fall of prices in those instances in which a fall did occur, while in the instances of the large classes of articles which experienced either no fall, or none worth mentioning, and some indeed of the most important of which had coincidently risen in price, the more peculiar circumstances affecting them are held to be sufficient to account for their not coming under the influence of the currency.

There was, in fact, nothing like an extreme or general depression of prices during the severest pressure of the money market, before the end of November, 1836. The greatest fall that occurred in that year was in the article of tea. But it is well known that the importation was on a scale of unprecedented magnitude, and that the forcing off of the East India Company's remaining stock, in competition with individual importations, combined with the operation of the duty, must have led inevitably to a great depression under any circumstances of the money market. Thus, in one of the very circulars in which the sudden